Tropical Storm Could Form In The Gulf By Midweek | (2024)

Tropical Storm Could Form In The Gulf By Midweek | (1)

At a Glance

  • Tropical development is possible by midweek in the southwest Gulf of Mexico.
  • This system could then move slowly west toward Mexico or South Texas.
  • Regardless, flooding rain is likely in parts of Mexico and Central America.
  • High surf, rip currents and locally heavy rain is expected along parts of the western Gulf Coast of the U.S.

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The first​ tropical depression or storm of the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season may form in the week ahead in the western Gulf of Mexico, but rainfall and coastal flooding, high surf and rip currents may occur regardless from Louisiana and Texas to parts of Mexico and Central America.

One instigator of storms has now formed: A broader area of lower pressure across southern Mexico and Central America, something meteorologists refer to as a Central American Gyre, or CAG. These expansive swirls can spawn or influence tropical storms in the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea or eastern Pacific Ocean both early and late in hurricane season.

(​MORE: Central American Gyre Explained)

T​hese systems often develop slowly and the tropical systems that form from them are generally slower to develop.

Other favorable ingredients: Wind shear, a typical nemesis of developing tropical systems, may be strong near the northern Gulf Coast, but may be light enough around the Bay of Campeche to allow for development early week. And as we've been discussing since spring, Gulf water is record warm for this time of year, easily supportive of tropical development.

W​hen it may develop and where it may go: The National Hurricane Center has its eyes on two different areas of spin embedded in the greater gyre: one more general area located in the western Caribbean and another tighter spin off the Pacific coast of Guatemala.

Computer forecast models suggest a piece of that CAG may become a tropical depression or storm as soon as midweek in the southwestern Gulf of Mexico.

I​f that happens, the majority of that forecast guidance suggests it would move slowly west or west-northwest, eventually toward eastern Mexico's Gulf Coast later in the week ahead.

That said, given the usual slow development of such spin-offs, there is some time to watch for changes in the forecast, we can't rule out a farther north track, perhaps toward parts of the South Texas coast.

T​he first name in the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season list is "Alberto".

(Further beef up your forecast with our detailed, hour-by-hour breakdown for the next 8 days – only available on our Premium Pro experience.)

Most dangerous impact, regardless: Whether or not tropical development happens, the aforementioned Central American Gyre is a notoriously prolific rainfall generator.


This large spin w​ill wrap moisture from the eastern Pacific into southern Mexico and Central America for days.

Tropical Storm Could Form In The Gulf By Midweek | (3)

R​ainfall totals through the end of the week of June 16 will likely be measured in multiple feet in parts of extreme southern Mexico, Guatemala, El Salvador, Honduras and western Nicaragua. This will lead to life-threatening flooding and mudslides, especially in mountainous terrain.

F​our years ago also in June, the combination of a CAG, eastern Pacific Tropical Storm Amanda and Gulf Tropical Storm Cristobal dumped up to 42 inches of rain in El Salvador. Forty-three lives were lost from the flooding in Mexico and Central America.

H​eavy rain is also expected in other parts of eastern Mexico ahead of and near the center of this system. That could also trigger dangerous flash flooding and mudslides.

Tropical Storm Could Form In The Gulf By Midweek | (4)

P​ossible U.S. Gulf Coast impacts: As the map above shows, some locally heavy bursts of rain may push as far as the northern Gulf Coast. Moisture could arrive as soon as Sunday afternoon, and continue through the week. The heaviest rain is expected near the Texas and Louisiana coasts. Local flash flooding is possible.

But that's not the only impact.

P​ersistent east winds will generate swells leading to high surf, dangerous rip currents and coastal flooding, particularly in Texas and Louisiana. This threat will also persist for several days during the week.

C​heck back with us at for important updates to this forecast as the details become clearer in the days ahead.


-​ Why The Atlantic's Slow Start To Hurricane Season Is Meaningless

-​ How To Prepare For Hurricane Season

-​ The Danger of Rip Currents

Jonathan Erdman is a senior meteorologist at and has been covering national and international weather since 1996. His lifelong love of meteorology began with a close encounter with a tornado as a child in Wisconsin. He completed a Bachelor's degree in physics at the University of Wisconsin-Madison, then a Master's degree working with dual-polarization radar and lightning data at Colorado State University. Extreme and bizarre weather are his favorite topics. Reach out to him on X (formerly Twitter), Threads, Facebook and Bluesky.

Tropical Storm Could Form In The Gulf By Midweek | (2024)


Is there a tropical storm coming into the Gulf? ›

There are currently no active storms in the North Atlantic, Caribbean Sea, or Gulf of Mexico.

Are there any tropical storms forming? ›

There are no tropical cyclones in the Atlantic at this time. There are no tropical cyclones in the Eastern North Pacific at this time. There are no tropical cyclones in the Central North Pacific at this time.

Is a tropical storm heading to Florida? ›

Tropical Weather

This system poses no direct threat to Florida at this time. *Formation chance through 48 hours… low… near 0%.

How often do tropical storms form in the Gulf of Mexico? ›

Each year, an average of ten tropical storms develop over the Atlantic Ocean, Carribean Sea, and Gulf of Mexico. Many of these remain over the ocean. Six of these storms become hurricanes each year.

What was the worst hurricane in history? ›

The Galveston Hurricane of August 1900 was the deadliest hurricane in United States history, according to NOAA, causing tremendous destruction and loss of life. An estimated 8,000 to 12,000 people died in the storm, making it the deadliest natural disaster in U.S. history.

When was the last hurricane in Florida? ›

The most recent hurricane to make landfall in Florida was Idalia in 2023.

What are signs that a hurricane is coming? ›

26 hours before landfall: First signs of a hurricane appear including falling pressure, light breezes, ocean surface swells of 10-15 feet, and white cirrus clouds on the horizon. 24 hours before landfall: Overcast skies, high winds, sea foam on the ocean's surface.

Where are tropical storms most likely to occur? ›

During the peak season, hurricanes form in the Caribbean Sea, Gulf of Mexico and the Atlantic Ocean. The most active period in the Atlantic starts from mid-August all through to late October.

Are tropical storms getting bigger? ›

The global proportion of tropical cyclones that reach very intense (Category 4 and 5) levels is projected to increase (medium to high confidence) due to anthropogenic warming over the 21st century.

How many hurricanes are predicted to hit Florida in 2024? ›

Experts are predicting this season could bring:

Between 17 and 25 named storms (storms with winds of at least 39 mph). Between 8 and 13 of these will be hurricanes (storms with winds of at least 79 mph).

Is any of Florida considered tropical? ›

In the United States, tropical and subtropical forests are found only in south Florida, covering the southern part of the Floridian Coastal Plain and the Florida Keys. The climate is typically hot and humid with abundant rainfall, although droughts do occur.

Why is Florida so windy right now? ›

Florida is locked into a pattern with high pressure to our north and an area of low pressure to the south. When situated in the middle, you're caught in what's considered a strong pressure gradient, and that causes extremely windy or breezy conditions.

What part of Florida gets hit the most by hurricanes? ›

Knowing that Northwest Florida and the Florida Keys are the region's most frequently hit by hurricanes can help you prepare. Homeowners in these areas should take appropriate measures to protect their property and lives by investing in hurricane-resistant features like impact-resistant doors and windows.

What part of Florida has the least hurricanes? ›

What are the safest cities in Florida from Hurricanes (Short Answer) Considering hurricanes of Categories 1 to 5, the most secure regions in Florida include Central Florida (for instance, Orlando), Northeast Florida (such as Palatka), Central West Florida (Tampa), and North Central Florida (including Gainesville).

Do hurricanes ever start in the Gulf of Mexico? ›

The warm ocean waters that hurricanes need to develop and survive are normally kept well south of the California/Mexico border by southward flowing ocean water currents. For this reason, hurricane development is generally limited to areas south of Baja California, well away from the West Coast.

Do hurricanes hit the Gulf? ›

Hurricanes are major storm systems that can have significant impact on the Gulf of Mexico region.

Why is it raining so much? ›

Why more rain? The simple answer is that warm air is able to hold more moisture. For every degree of warming the amount of water vapour in the atmosphere increases by around 7% fuelling more intense rainfall.

Where do hurricanes happen the most? ›

In the Atlantic basin, the annual average is about six hurricanes. The Northwest Pacific sees by far the largest number of hurricanes each year, with an average of 16.5, while the North Indian Ocean sees the least, with an average of 1.5.

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